Working Papers
Child Protection in Response to Public Health Crises: Evidence from the Opioid Epidemic (Job market paper)
Abstract: This paper examines the impacts of the opioid epidemic on child maltreatment and how Child Protective Services (CPS) responded to the epidemic. I use the reformulation of OxyContin, a nationwide supply shock in prescription opioids that exacerbated the opioid epidemic, as a natural experiment. Leveraging variation in states' and counties' exposure to this intervention, I find that the opioid epidemic led to an increase in maltreatment allegations, suggesting a rise in the underlying maltreatment risk. Despite heightened risk, institutional responses did not scale protective actions accordingly, resulting in more cases where children were left at home but subsequently reinvestigated for maltreatment. Foster care placement rates remained unchanged and administrative expenditures per allegation declined, pointing to a limited systemic response. This study underscores the intergenerational consequences of the opioid epidemic and highlights how public health crises can weaken protective systems, particularly when institutions lack the flexibility or capacity to adapt.
Presented at: Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management (APPAM) Fall Conference 2024, Canadian Economics Association (CEA) Annual Meeting 2025, Western Economic Association International (WEAI) 100th Conference, Economics Graduate Student Conference 2025, Duke University Labor/Public Seminar
Scheduled at: Southern Economic Association (SEA) Annual Meeting 2025
Mechanism Reform for Task Allocation (with Jason Baron, Richard Lombardo, Joseph Ryan, and Quitze Valenzuela-Stookey). NBER Working Paper #32369
Abstract: Reforming an existing system for allocating tasks among agents introduces additional political and institutional constraints relative to designing one in isolation. We develop a general mechanism-design framework for using data on agents’ performance to improve outcomes while ensuring that no agents are made worse off relative to the status quo. As an illustration, we apply our results to the assignment of Child Protective Services investigators to maltreatment cases. Simulations show the mechanism reduces false positives (unnecessary foster care placements) by up to 14% while also lowering false negatives (missed maltreatment cases) and overall placements.
Work in Progress
Effects of Controlling Prescription Opioids on Child Welfare