Working Papers
Child Protection in Response to Public Health Crises: Evidence from the Opioid Epidemic (Job market paper)
Abstract: This paper examines the impacts of the opioid epidemic on child maltreatment and how Child Protective Services (CPS) responded to the epidemic. I use the reformulation of OxyContin, a nationwide supply shock in prescription opioids that exacerbated the opioid epidemic, as a natural experiment. Leveraging variation in states' and counties' exposure to this intervention, I find that the opioid epidemic led to an increase in maltreatment allegations, suggesting a rise in the underlying maltreatment risk. Despite heightened risk, institutional responses did not scale protective actions accordingly, resulting in more cases where children were left at home but subsequently reinvestigated for maltreatment. Foster care placement rates remained unchanged and administrative expenditures per allegation declined, pointing to a limited systemic response. This study underscores the intergenerational consequences of the opioid epidemic and highlights how public health crises can weaken protective systems, particularly when institutions lack the flexibility or capacity to adapt.
Presented at: Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management (APPAM) Fall Conference 2024, Canadian Economics Association (CEA) Annual Meeting 2025, Western Economic Association International (WEAI) 100th Conference, Economics Graduate Student Conference 2025, Southern Economic Association (SEA) Annual Meeting 2025, Korea-America Economic Association (KAEA) Job Market Conference, Duke University Labor/Public Seminar
Reforming Rotations (with Jason Baron, Richard Lombardo, Joseph Ryan, and Quitze Valenzuela-Stookey). NBER Working Paper #32369
Abstract: In many settings, tasks are assigned to agents via a rotation. Such quasi-random allocation ignores heterogeneity in agents' performance and preferences. We study how a designer can exploit such heterogeneity to improve aggregate performance while simultaneously ensuring that no agent is worse off relative to the status-quo system. The key challenge is that, while the designer may be able to estimate agents' performance, their preferences are inherently unobservable. We develop a mechanism-design framework to study this problem and characterize optimal mechanisms in both static and dynamic settings. Optimal mechanisms can be interpreted as competitive equilibria in which agents trade tasks facing personalized, kinked budget sets. As an illustration, we apply our results to the assignment of Child Protective Services investigators to maltreatment cases. Simulations show that the mechanism reduces false positives (unnecessary foster care placements) by up to 14\% while also lowering false negatives (missed maltreatment cases) and overall placements.
Effects of Controlling Prescription Opioids on Child Welfare
Abstract: This paper examines the effects of Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs (PDMPs) on child maltreatment, distinguishing between two types that vary in policy intensity: modern and mandatory PDMPs. Leveraging the staggered rollout of PDMPs across states, I find that modern PDMPs, which are fully electronic and integrated into clinical workflows, did not yield statistically significant effects on maltreatment allegations. In contrast, mandatory PDMPs, which require prescribers to consult the database, led to an 18 percent increase in maltreatment allegations. These findings suggest that the unintended consequences of prescription opioid control policies can extend to child welfare, operating through their effects on parental behavior.